Simulation of collective decision-making with incomplete information

Abstract

To study individual interactions and describe opinion dynamics and consensus formation on Internet, the process of strategy selection is modeled and simulated by game theory with incomplete information of personal characters. According to the asymmetry of information in network communication, the paper presents a payment matrix with incomplete information based on human self-confidence, and uses Harsanyi transformation to analyze the Bayesian Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, memory of agents is introduced, and the acquaintance for neighbors' personality is updated through the process of communication. Simulation and analysis results prove under circumstances of incomplete information, convergence time is shortened and information spreads more quickly. The content helps to understand the diffusion process of network events which generate consensus easily, and can serve as reference for guiding public opinion on Internet. Show more