Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning

Abstract

Decisions about the future are necessarily uncertain, and increasing social-political change and technological disruption compound this uncertainty. Despite this, scientists and scientific organizations must still plan for the future. Foresighting is one approach used to inform thinking about future conditions. We describe a quantitative foresighting approach for a range of general science and marine-specific foresights. Repeat assessment over a 2-year period showed that the time-specific likelihood futures were consistent between years. Our approach can be used to prepare scientists and their institutions for possible futures, and to prioritize among these choices. Show more