Modeling water resource in the Australian Capital Territory

Abstract

The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) has found its water supply threatened by prolonged drought, bushfires and increasing consumer demand. In future, risks will escalate as a consequence of climate change effects and continued population growth. Strategies which seek to reduce the per capita demand for water, and ideally to limit total consumption, appear to be obvious ways of achieving water resource sustainability. Programs which focus on improving the effectiveness in communicating to consumers how water availability is threatened are considered to be an essential part managing demand and ultimately consumption. Effective communication aims to increase public understanding of the problem whilst better informing local decision making and public acceptance of strategies which might be imposed in future to manage scarce water resources. As this problem is inherently complex, effective risk communication is problematic both for those developing management strategies and those who may have such strategies imposed upon them. Advances in computer modelling and simulation, supported by rapid progress in Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) provide unprecedented opportunities for demonstrating to the public the complex interrelationships between supply and demand for water. System Dynamics (SD) modelling is a promising approach for enabling learning and communication. While SD is often used to analyse the dynamics of systemic problems and assess policy options, its potential for communicating systemic risks to the public has not been fully exploited. The ongoing research described in this paper aims to develop a SD-based interactive learning tool to help ACT residents develop a systemic perspective of the water management problem and to demonstrate plausible futures they might face. Expected outcomes of this research are an understanding of options for facilitating dialogue among stakeholders, effectively promoting water-wise attitudes and ultimately influencing consumer behaviour. This paper describes the methodology used to collect, analyse and merge views elicited from stakeholders (i.e. users and managers) and to form them into a conceptual causal feedback representation of the problem. This representation forms the basis for subsequent stages in which quantitative models and computer simulations will be developed. The methodology has three stages. Firstly, a preliminary conceptual model was developed based on the systems thinking (ST) and SD literatures. Secondly, local and expert knowledge was captured by eliciting the perceptions of water users (n=25) and managers (n=10) in the ACT using semi-structured interviews. Cognitive Mapping techniques were used to depict participants' perceptions. Finally, noting the potential pitfalls of doing so, the various views were represented in a single conceptual model. An electronic workbook was also used to investigate stakeholders' perceptions of the causal relationships between selected strongly coupled variables and for obtaining estimates of selected parameters needed for subsequent quantitative modelling activities. The ST/SD modelling used in this research is distinguished by the following: as an action research inquiry and that it seeks to demonstrate the recoverability criterion. That is, whilst it is neither possible to comprehensively validate the research findings nor precisely replicate the research elsewhere, every step in the research journey is traceable. Hence understanding of problem and the manifestations of its complexity are enhanced as are the insights into how to develop and implement effective risk communication strategies. Show more