Tran, Thao LinhRitchie, Elizabeth A.Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.Bui, HaiLuong, Thang M.2025-03-202025-03-20Scopus:85203331655https://dspace-test.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/733725147Observations and climate projections suggest a larger increase in tropical cyclone (TC)-induced rainfall than that can be explained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship of 7% increase in vapor content for each 1°C degree rise in temperature. However, these studies using diverse data sources and methods over various periods show inconsistencies regarding the location of this increase - whether in the TC inner core or outer regions - and offer differing explanations for the reported trends. This study uses the Pseudo-global warming methodology on simulations of 117 western North Pacific TCs making landfall in Southeast Asia to investigate changes in TC rainfall structure by the end of the century under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Specifically, it tests the sensitivity of changing trends to various analysis methods used in previous studies and identifies the underlying physical mechanisms driving these changes. The findings indicate an amplified increase in rainfall in the TC inner core across all future scenarios, along with potentially decreased rainfall in the outer region under certain future climate conditions. Among TC categories, Supertyphoons exhibit the most significant increased rainfall across future states. Changes in TC primary and secondary circulations, TC structure, and the convergence of heat and moisture are the main factors shaping future rainfall patterns, outweighing the effects of changes in atmospheric and convective stability.This research was undertaken with the assistance of resources and services from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), which is supported by the Australian Government. IBTrACS data version 4 (Knapp et al., 2018 ) provided by NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information can be accessed at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/international\u2010best\u2010track\u2010archive\u2010for\u2010climate\u2010stewardship\u2010ibtracs/v04r00/access/ . The data on which this article is based are available in Tran et al. ( 2024 ). This article is based on part of the first author's PhD thesis conducted at the University of New South Wales Canberra, which was supported by the Australian Government Endeavour Leadership Program (PhD scholarship\u20146614\u20142018) and a UNSW scholarship (Int'l MOUs PTFS\u2014RSRE7073). The authors are grateful to the editor and two anonymous reviewers for the constructive feedback for improving the manuscript. Open access publishing facilitated by Australian National University, as part of the Wiley \u2010 Australian National University agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians. This article is based on part of the first author's PhD thesis conducted at the University of New South Wales Canberra, which was supported by the Australian Government Endeavour Leadership Program (PhD scholarship\u20146614\u20142018) and a UNSW scholarship (Int'l MOUs PTFS\u2014RSRE7073). The authors are grateful to the editor and two anonymous reviewers for the constructive feedback for improving the manuscript. Open access publishing facilitated by Australian National University, as part of the Wiley - Australian National University agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians.EnglishPublisher Copyright: © 2024. The Author(s).climate changefuture climatesmodelingPseudo-global warmingrainfalltropical cyclone202410.1029/2024EF004808http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85203331655&partnerID=8YFLogxK