Research priorities arising from the 2002-2003 bushfire season in south-eastern Australia

Abstract

A range of research priorities arising from the 2002-2003 bushfire season in south-eastern Australia are presented. Research imperatives relate to questions about the ignition of fires, the spread of fires in landscapes, the impact on ecosystems, and about managing bushfire risk in a changing world. Research leading to improved understanding of spatial patterns of lightning-fire ignitions will lead to increased efficiency and effectiveness of prescribed burning programs. Similarly, analysis of initial fire-attack success under severe drought conditions may result in improved management of fire ignitions. Models of fire spread that are effective in the domain of severe fire weather are lacking and research into improving fire models is suggested. There is also a need for analysis and simulation of the effectiveness of programs of prescribed burning in reducing bushfire risk at the landscape scale. Related to this is the need for resolving long-lasting and contentious debates about the nature of fire regimes in south-eastern Australia prior to modification by Europeans. Given their geographical extent, the 2002-2003 fires provide a rare opportunity for well-replicated and rigorous evaluation of fire ecology theory developed over the last 25 y. Research on the impact on water supplies is also a priority. The world is also changing. The recent fires have enhanced speculation about the possible impacts of climate change, one aspect of global change, on fire regimes. The ultimate aim of applied fire research must be toward an optimal solution to the sustainable management of bushfire risk.