A model for estimating the effects of fluctuations in long term meteorology on observed maximum acid gas levels

Abstract

A model is proposed to estimate the effect of long term meteorology on maximum daily acid gas levels for each year of 10 years of data for Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia. The model assumes that (1) the probability density functions of both air pollution data and wind speed are lognormally distributed and (2), on average, an inverse relationship exists between air pollution levels and wind speed. Two acid gas monitoring stations in Newcastle and a nearby wind speed station have data which satisfy both these requirements. The maximum acid levels at both stations vary by a factor of about 3-4 over a ten-year period and the model shows that about half of this variation is directly related to fluctuations in the wind speed distribution, leaving the rest of the variation to be explained either by changes in emissions or more meteorological change. It is clear that, if the two prerequisite conditions hold, a significant proportion of the effect of long-term meteorological fluctions on maximum air pollutant levels may be explained by the model to within a reasonable accuracy. Show more