Assessment of multiple precipitation interpolation methods and uncertainty analysis of hydrological models in Chaohe River basin, China

Abstract

Precipitation interpolation is widely used to generate continuous rainfall surfaces for hydrological simulations. However, increasing the precision of values at the unknown points generated by different spatial interpolation methods is challenging. This study used the Chaohe River Basin, which is an important source of Beijing’s drinking water, as a research area to comprehensively evaluate several precipitation interpolation methods (Thiessen polygon, inverse distance weighting, ordinary kriging and ANUSPLIN) for inputs in hydrological simulations. This research showed that the precipitation time-series surface generated using the ANUSPLIN interpolation method had higher accuracy and reliability. Using this precipitation input to drive the hydrological models, we explored the parameter uncertainties of four typical hydrological models (GR4J, IHACRES, Sacramento and MIKE SHE) based on the multi-objective generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. The GLUE method was used to study the parameter sensitivity and uncertainty of the model. Results showed that the ANUSPLIN precipitation interpolation surface combined with the Sacramento model performed best. The multi-objective GLUE method had obvious advantages in parameter uncertainty analysis in hydrological models. Simultaneously exploring the convex line and point density distributions of the behavioural parameters with multi-objective functions determined their distribution and sensitivity more effectively.