Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
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Abel, Guy J
Bijak, Jakub
Forster, Jonathon J
Raymer, James
Smith, Peter WF
Wong, Jackie S.T.
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
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Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model. Objective: In this paper, we use Bayesian time series models
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Demographic Research
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2037-12-31
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