Coherent mortality forecasting: The product-ratio method with functional time series models

Hyndman, Rob; Booth, Heather; Yasmeen, Farah

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Coherent mortality forecasting: The product-ratio method with functional time series models

Date

2013

Authors

Hyndman, Rob

Booth, Heather

Yasmeen, Farah

Publisher

Springer

Abstract

When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost always divergent in the long term. We propose a method for coherent forecasting of mortality rates for two or more subpopulations, based on functional principal components